World Meteorological Organisation Warns of Historic December El Niño Peak in Kenya 

The World Meteorological Organization has issued a fresh warning that the ongoing El Niño event could rank among the most powerful recorded since 1950, with forecasters projecting a December peak that may bring flooding to Kenya and disrupt weather patterns worldwide.

In an update released Thursday, October 8, the WMO confirmed that the climate phenomenon is intensifying rapidly and is expected to continue strengthening before reaching its maximum strength in December 2026.

WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950.” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

The agency projects above-average temperatures across much of the globe, alongside significant shifts in rainfall distribution. Some regions face heightened flood risk, while others could experience prolonged dry conditions.

The warning comes as Kenyan authorities have already activated a national response framework under the National Contingency Plan. The Ministry of Interior has begun mapping evacuation routes and prepositioning emergency supplies, while security agencies coordinate preparedness efforts.

The WMO’s latest assessment, based on data from 13 national and international forecasting centres, indicates the Niño 3.4 index could reach approximately 3.7°C above normal between October and December surpassing the previous record of 2.6°C set during the 2015-2016 season.

August 2026 already recorded the highest global surface temperature for that month, according to Copernicus, NOAA and NASA, with global sea-surface temperatures hitting an all-time high.